National Park Service |
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Freshwater Tidal Marsh Elevation Monitoring at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens: 2022 - 2025
National Capital Region Network (NCRN)
August 24, 2026
Figure 1. Surface elevation table (SET) monitoring at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens, part of National Capital Parks - East.
Background
Tidal wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation which is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. As sea level rises, tidal wetland systems must build elevation at a rate equal to or greater than the rate of sea-level rise to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival (Figure 2). With global rates of sea-level rise predicted to increase over the coming decades (Church et al. 2010), many more coastal wetlands may become vulnerable to increased inundation. Additionally, areas such as the mid-Atlantic region may undergo even greater sea-level rise due to changes in coastal ocean circulation and spatial variation in rates of coastal areas sinking (subsiding) and sediment compaction since the last glaciation (Engelhart et al. 2009, Miller et al. 2013, Sallenger et al. 2012).
The National Capital Region Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCRN) uses the SET technique (surface elevation table) to monitor elevation change as a vital sign of freshwater tidal marsh health at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens. The SET technique has been widely used for documenting and interpreting trends in surface elevation dynamics over time and assessing wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise (Cahoon et al. 2006, Jankowski et al. 2017, McKee 2011, Saintilan et al. 2022, Sasmito et al. 2016, Webb et al. 2013). In the following sections, we use these data to answer the following questions:
What are the elevation dynamics of tidal wetlands at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens? (Figure 2B; Results Section 1)
How do local hydrology and tidal datums relate to marsh surface elevations? (Figure 2A and C; Results Section 2)
Is elevation gain sufficient to keep pace with current and predicted future sea-level rise? (Figure 2D; Results Section 3)
Figure 2. Conceptual diagram showing the relationships among wetland surface elevation (A), tidal datums (C), and their respective rates of change (B and D). MHW (mean high water) and MLW (mean low water) are the average elevations at high and low tide respectively and determine what parts of the marsh are subject to tidal processes. Understanding these relationships is important for evaluating the survival of a wetland community in response to sea-level rise.
Methods
Protocol
NCRN’s long-term, standardized monitoring protocol for monitoring surface elevation change (Lynch et al. 2015) is implemented annually in the spring at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens (Figure 1). The SET is a portable mechanical leveling device providing repeated, high-resolution measurements of elevation change in wetland sediments or shallow water bottoms. The measurements are relative to the depth of a permanent benchmark that has been anchored into the soil as far as possible, which was between 8.5 m and 11 m. During measurements, the SET arm is attached to the permanent SET benchmark and extended over the marsh surface at four fixed positions. The SET arm is carefully leveled, and each of nine fiberglass pins are lowered through the arm to the soil surface. The height of each pin above the arm is measured on repeated sampling events. Changes in the height of the pins between sampling events are used to quantify soil surface elevation change over time relative to the permanent benchmark. Note that each station has a single SET, each individual SET has four arm positions, and each arm has nine pins - thus a total of 36 nested measurements are taken at each station on each sampling event. Additional details on the SET technique can be found in Cahoon et al. 2002a, Cahoon et al. 2002b, Cahoon 2024, Callaway et al. 2013, Lynch et al. 2015.
Study Site & Sample Size
Surface elevation change is actively monitored at six stations (Figure 3). Stations were located so as to be both representative of the marsh habitat and to facilitate ease of access for repeated sampling trips (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 1: Project Planning). Note that the previous five stations at Kenilworth were retired in 2019 as some were being buried in sediment. The retired stations were replaced with the six current stations in 2022. Additional details on the status of each station and the dates of the initial and most recent measurements are shown in Table 1 below.
All data utilized in this report have undergone quality assurance, quality control, and certification according to the procedures outlined in the NPS Coastal Elevation Data QAQC and Publication SOP (Thorsdatter et al. 2023). These data are available for public use and can be downloaded from the NPS DataStore.
| Station | First reading | Most recent reading | Status | Dominant vegetation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KenSET01 | 2022 | 2025 | active | T. latifolia, P. virginica, Sagittaria sp., P. australis |
| KenSET02 | 2022 | 2025 | active | T. latifolia, P. virginica, Sagittaria sp., P. australis |
| KenSET04 | 2022 | 2025 | active | T. latifolia, P. virginica, Sagittaria sp., P. australis |
| KenSET05 | 2022 | 2025 | active | T. latifolia, P. virginica, Sagittaria sp., P. australis |
| KenSET06 | 2022 | 2025 | active | T. latifolia, P. virginica, Sagittaria sp., P. australis |
| KenSET07 | 2022 | 2025 | active | T. latifolia, P. virginica, Sagittaria sp., P. australis |
SET Data Summarization & Analysis
Prior to data analyses, the SET data were summarized using the procedures outlined in the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 8: SET and Marker Horizon Data Analysis). In brief, the height of each pin above the SET arm on each sampling date was first subtracted from its initial value (i.e., the value on the first measurement date) to determine cumulative surface elevation change. Next, the pin-level cumulative surface elevation change values for each measurement date were then averaged for each SET bearing, and finally the bearing-level values were averaged to the station level. To estimate the rate of marsh surface elevation change at each station, we used a simple linear regression model where the independent variable was the time since the first measurement and the dependent variable was station-level cumulative surface elevation change as outlined in Feher et al. 2024 and Russell et al. 2022.
Figure 3. Individual SET stations within Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens. Click on the points to see the station labels.
Marsh Surface Elevation Data
The elevation of the marsh surface at the marsh stations at NACE were determined by converting SET pin measurements to NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988) elevations. To accomplish this, static GNSS (global navigation satellite system) surveys were conducted on the SET benchmarks that were installed in each of the marshes according to the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015). This resulted in the elevation of the benchmark in meters NAVD88. Accurate measures of the SET benchmark allowed for the conversion of SET pin data from the most recent sampling event to an NAVD88 elevation using the formula outlined in the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 6: Surveying the SET Mark):
\[ MSE = A + B - (D-C) \]
where MSE is the marsh surface elevation in meters NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988), A is the NAVD88 elevation of the SET benchmark, B is the vertical offset of the SET instrument above the marsh, C is the SET pin measurement, and D is the length of the pin.
Hydrologic Data, Tidal Datums, & Marsh Flooding
Water level data were collected at continuous 15 minute intervals from 1 permanent water level logger (HOBO® 13-Foot Water Level Data Logger, model U20-001-04) installed underneath the boardwalk at Kenilworth Marsh as outlined in the NCBN Water Level Data Collection and Management methods document (Curdts 2017). Prior to the calculation of marsh flooding time and tidal datums, the raw water level data were first converted to meters NAVD88 using the absolute elevation of the water logger derived from on-the-ground RTK surveys as outlined in the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 6: Surveying the SET Mark). Both the raw water level data and water level data relative to NAVD88 were then uploaded to the NPS AQUARIUS WebPortal for QAQC, certification, and storage. In order to calculate the percentage of time that each marsh was flooded, the water level data referenced to NAVD88 were compared to the NAVD88 ground elevations of the marsh at each station (Curdts 2017). Similarly, we also used the water level data referenced to NAVD88 to calculate tidal datums for mean high water (MHW), mean low water (MLW), and mean sea level (MSL) as defined by NOAA (NOAA Tides and Currents Glossary).
Elevation Capital
We calculated the normalized elevation capital (NEC), a metric of marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise, using the formula defined by Morris et al. 2020:
\[ NEC=\frac{MSE - (MSL - 0.1)}{MHW + 0.3 - (MSL - 0.1)} \]
where MSE is the marsh surface elevation, MSL is mean sea level, MHW is mean high water, and 0.1 m below mean sea level to 0.3 m above mean high water represent the assumed growth range of Spartina alterniflora (the dominant vegetation type in salt marshes of the northeastern U.S.). Although Typha latifolia takes the place of Spartina alternafolia in NCR marshes, NEC is used as a standardized means of assessing marshes. NEC ranges between 0 to 1 and marshes with an NEC below 0.5 are considered vulnerable to sea-level rise or unstable, whereas marshes with an NEC equal to or above 0.5 are considered more stable with higher elevations (Roman et al. 2024).
Sea-Level Data & Rates of Sea-Level Rise
Long-Term SLR
The long-term relative rate of sea-level rise (RSLR) was obtained from the NOAA tides and currents website for the nearby tide gauge at Washington, DC (Station ID: 8594900). This long-term SLR rate is based on the full record of water level observations collected between the year that the gauge was installed (1924) to the most recent year of certified data (2025).
Recent SLR
We estimated a recent rate of relative sea-level rise using the method described in Moon et al. 2022, where a linear regression model was applied to the monthly mean sea-level data with the average seasonal cycle removed by subsetting the data from the Washington, DC gauge for the most recent tidal epoch between 2001 to 2019.
Future SLR
We estimated future projected relative sea-level rise rates using the five alternative SLR scenarios produced by Sweet et al. 2022 for the 5th National Climate Assessment. The low, intermediate-low, intermediate, intermediate-high, and high SLR scenarios correspond to global mean sea-level increases of 0.3 m, 0.5 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, and 2.0 m (respectively) by 2100. To approximate the RSLR rate by 2100 under each of the five scenarios, we used the data provided by Sweet et al. 2022 to estimate future RSLR rates for the 2090-2100 decade for the Washington, DC tide gauge as outlined in Chivoiu et al. 2020, Moon et al. 2022, and Osland et al. 2024.
Results
1. What are the elevation dynamics of tidal wetlands at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens?
Across all stations at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens, the park-wide average rate of surface elevation change was a gain of 9.69 ± 2.45 mm/yr. Station-level rates of surface elevation change varied from a low of 3.97 ± 0.61 mm/yr at KenSET07 to a high of 19.58 ± 4.94 mm/yr at KenSET05 (Table 2; Figure 4).
| Station |
Rate of surface elevation change (mm/yr) |
Adjusted 𝑟² | Years measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| KenSET01 | 4.51 ± 4.25 | 0.36 | 2022-2025 |
| KenSET02 | 10.69 ± 3.34 | 0.84 | 2022-2025 |
| KenSET04 | 6.36 ± 4.53 | 0.50 | 2022-2025 |
| KenSET05 | 19.58 ± 4.94 | 0.89 | 2022-2025 |
| KenSET06 | 13.01 ± 10.79 | 0.42 | 2022-2025 |
| KenSET07 | 3.97 ± 0.61* | 0.96 | 2022-2025 |
Figure 4. Station-level surface elevation change at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens. Station names and rates of surface elevation change (SEC) are shown on the top of each panel. Hover the mouse over a data point to see the cumulative surface elevation change value on a specific date, or click and drag over a specific time to zoom in. Double click to zoom back out.
2. How do local hydrology and tidal datums relate to marsh surface elevations?
Local Hydrology & Tidal Datums
Water level data was collected in the nearby tidal creek at Kenilworth Marsh over the period between March 2023 and November 2024 and is presented in Figure 5 below. Note that tidal datums are the same for all stations since a single logger was installed in close proximity to all SETs. Tidal datums for Kenilworth Marsh were 0.146 m NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988), 0.662 m NAVD88, and 0.329 m NAVD88 for mean low water (MLW), mean high water (MHW), and mean sea level (MSL), respectively, for the period between March 2023 to November 2024.
Figure 5. Station-level water level data at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens. Note that the colored lines indicate the marsh surface elevation (m NAVD88) at each station. Hover the mouse over a data point to see the water level, or click and drag over a specific area to zoom in. Double click to zoom back out.
Marsh Elevation, Flooding, & Elevation Capital
Marsh surface elevation at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens varied by 0.237 m, with KenSET05 having the lowest elevation (0.408 m NAVD88) and KenSET01 having the highest elevation (0.645 m NAVD88). The park-wide average marsh surface elevation was 0.531 m NAVD88. Accordingly, the percentage of time that the marsh was flooded ranged from a low of 12% at KenSET01 to a high of 33% at KenSET05 (park-wide average: 22%). Elevation capital ranged from a low of 0.24 at KenSET05 to a high of 0.57 at KenSET01. Out of the six stations at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens, three stations - KenSET02, KenSET05, and KenSET06 - had elevation capital values below 0.5, indicating a higher vulnerability to sea-level rise. Three stations - KenSET01, KenSET04, and KenSET07 - had elevation capital values above 0.5, indicating a lower vulnerability to sea-level rise. Figure 6 below illustrates the relationship between marsh surface elevation, flooding, and elevation capital.
Figure 6. Bivariate relationships between station-level rates of surface elevation change, marsh flooding, and elevation capital at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens. Labeled values represent the station-level hydrology metric. The dashed red line on the second panel represents the elevation capital threshold for marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise.
3. Is elevation gain sufficient to keep pace with current and predicted future sea-level rise?
Comparisons to current sea-level rise
As of August 2026, the current long-term rate of relative sea-level rise from the nearest NOAA tide gauge at Washington, DC was 3.54 mm/yr (± 0.13) for the period between 1924 to 2025 (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8594900). All six stations at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the relative long-term rate of sea-level rise (Figure 7).
Additionally, using the sea-level data from the nearby NOAA tide gauge, we calculated a recent rate of relative sea-level rise of 8.53 mm/yr (± 1.65) for Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens over the most recent tidal epoch (2001-2019). Out of the six stations at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens, five stations - KenSET01, KenSET02, KenSET04, KenSET05, and KenSET06 - gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the relative recent rate of sea-level rise (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Station-level surface elevation change at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens compared to relative long-term and recent rates of sea-level rise. Hover the mouse over a data point to see the rate of surface elevation change or sea-level rise, or click and drag over a specific area to zoom in. Double click to zoom back out.
Comparisons to predicted future sea-level rise
Based on the calculations provided in Sweet et al. 2022, future predicted rates of relative sea-level rise by 2100 for Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens were 5, 8, 20, 28, and 36 mm/yr for the low, intermediate-low, intermediate, intermediate-high, and high future sea-level rise scenarios, respectively. Five stations gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the future predicted low rate of sea-level rise, five stations gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the future predicted intermediate-low rate, and two stations gained elevation at a rate close to greater than the future predicted intermediate rate (KenSET05 and KenSET06). None of the stations gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the future predicted intermediate-high or high rates of sea-level rise (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Station-level surface elevation change at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens compared to future predicted rates of sea-level rise. Hover the mouse over a data point to see the rate of surface elevation change or future predicted sea-level rise, or click and drag over a specific area to zoom in. Double click to zoom back out.
Discussion & Conclusions
Figure 9 below visually summarizes the relationships between elevation change, marsh surface elevation, local tidal datums, and long-term and recent rates of sea-level rise. Three stations, KenSET01, KenSET07 and KenSET04 have elevations above 0.6 m (NAVD88) but are below the mean high water tidal datum (0.662 m NAVD88). These three sites have the highest elevation capital. The other three stations have lower elevations but are above the mean sea level datum (0.329 m NAVD88). All sites are within the tidal zone that can support marsh elevation.
Figure 9. Surface elevation change rates and station elevations at Kenilworth Park & Aquatic Gardens compared to local tidal datums and rates of SLR. Note that the dashed horizontal lines represent park-wide average Mean High Water (MHW) and Mean Sea Level (MSL).
A summary of these results can be seen in Table 3 below. The three sites at lower elevations are inundated for longer periods and therefore have more opportunity to accumulate sediment. As expected they show higher rates of surface elevation gain compared to the higher sites which are inundated less often. All stations have relatively high rates of surface elevation change and appear to be keeping pace with the local long-term and/or higher recent rates of sea-level rise. In fact, five of these stations appear to be building elevation at a rate close to or above the predicted future low or intermediate-low rates of sea-level rise. One caveat for these results is the rates of surface elevation change and marsh surface elevations at these stations are only representative of the very small area that is being measured and thus may not necessarily be representative of changes in the park as a whole. The survival of these marshes is linked to their ability to maintain a favorable vertical position in relation to the local hydrologic conditions. As rates of sea-level rise and hydrology, sediment input, nutrients, and other conditions in the park change, the marshes must adapt. If they cannot, their survival in the future would be uncertain. The NPS is continuing to monitor these vulnerable ecosystems.
| Station | SEC rate (mm/yr) | Marsh elevation (m NAVD88) | Time flooded (%) | Elevation capital | SEC vs. SLR-long1 | SEC vs. SLR-recent2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KenSET01 | 4.51 ± 4.25 | 0.645H | 12H | 0.57H | close or greaterH | close or greaterH |
| KenSET02 | 10.69 ± 3.34 | 0.416 | 32 | 0.26L | close or greaterH | close or greaterH |
| KenSET04 | 6.36 ± 4.53 | 0.630 | 13 | 0.55H | close or greaterH | close or greaterH |
| KenSET05 | 19.58 ± 4.94H | 0.408L | 33L | 0.24L | close or greaterH | close or greaterH |
| KenSET06 | 13.01 ± 10.79 | 0.458 | 28 | 0.31L | close or greaterH | close or greaterH |
| KenSET07 | 3.97 ± 0.61L | 0.632 | 13 | 0.55H | close or greaterH | lowerL |
| 1 Long-term SLR - rate of surface elevation change compared to the long-term rate of SLR from the NOAA gauge at Washington, DC (1924-2025). | ||||||
| 2 Recent SLR - rate of surface elevation change compared to the recent rate of SLR from the NOAA gauge at Washington, DC (2001-2019). |
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Contact Information
Laura_Feher@nps.gov
JP Schmit, NCRN Quantitative Ecologist & SET Protocol Lead
John_Schmit@nps.gov
Charlie Wainright, NCRN Data Manager
Charles_Wainright@nps.gov
Long-Term Monitoring Reveals Challenges and Resilience at Dyke Marsh
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