National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science

Salt Marsh Elevation Monitoring at Acadia National Park: 2011 - 2024

Figure 1. Surface elevation table (SET) monitoring at Acadia National Park.

Background

Coastal wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation which is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. As sea level rises, coastal wetland systems must build elevation at a rate equal to or greater than the rate of sea-level rise to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival (Figure 2). With global rates of sea-level rise predicted to increase over the coming decades (Church et al. 2010), many more coastal wetlands may become vulnerable to increased inundation. Additionally, certain areas of the coast, such as the mid-Atlantic region, can undergo even greater sea-level rise due to changes in coastal ocean circulation and spatial variation in rates of Holocene subsidence (Engelhart et al. 2009, Miller et al. 2013, Sallenger et al. 2012).

The Northeast Coastal & Barrier Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCBN) uses the SET technique (surface elevation table) to monitor elevation change as a vital sign of salt marsh health at Acadia National Park. The SET technique has been widely used for documenting and interpreting trends in surface elevation dynamics over time and assessing wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise (Cahoon et al. 2006, Jankowski et al. 2017, McKee 2011, Saintilan et al. 2022, Sasmito et al. 2016, Webb et al. 2013). In the following sections, we use these data to answer the following questions:

1. What are the elevation dynamics of coastal wetlands at Acadia National Park? (Figure 2B; Results Section 1)

2. How do local hydrology and tidal datums relate to marsh surface elevations? (Figure 2A and C; Results Section 2)

3. Is elevation gain sufficient to keep pace with current and predicted future sea level rise? (Figure 2D; Results Section 3)

Figure 2. Conceptual diagram showing the relationship among wetland surface elevation (A), tidal datums (C), and their respective rates of change (B and D). Understanding these relationships is important for evaluating the survival of a wetland community in response to sea-level rise.

Methods

Protocol

NCBN’s long-term, standardized monitoring protocol for monitoring surface elevation change (Lynch et al. 2015) is implemented semiannually in the spring and fall at Acadia National Park (Figure 1). The SET is a portable mechanical leveling device providing repeated, high-resolution measurements of elevation change in wetland sediments or shallow water bottoms relative to the depth of a permanent benchmark that has been anchored into the soil until refusal. During measurements, the SET arm is attached to the permanent SET benchmark and extended over the marsh surface at four fixed positions. The SET arm is carefully leveled, and each of nine fiberglass pins are lowered through the arm to the soil surface. The height of each pin above the arm is measured on repeated sampling events. Changes in the height of the pins between sampling events are used to quantify soil surface elevation change over time relative to the permanent benchmark. Note that each site has 3 stations, each station (an individual SET) has four arm positions, and each arm has nine pins - thus a total of 108 nested measurements are taken at each site on each sampling event. Additional details on the SET technique can be found in Cahoon et al. 2002a, Cahoon et al. 2002b, Cahoon 2024, Callaway et al. 2013, Lynch et al. 2015.

Study Site & Sample Size

Surface elevation change is actively monitored at four sites within Acadia National Park (Figure 3). Sites were located so as to be both representative of the marsh habitat throughout each park and also to facilitate ease of access for repeated sampling trips (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 1: Project Planning). Note that at station 1 at Bass Harbor, the benchmark was bent by ice in 2016 and was subsequently replaced with a newly installed benchmark in 2017. Additional details on the status of each site, the number of replicate SET stations at each site, and the dates of the initial and most recent measurements are shown in Table 1 below.

All data utilized in this report have undergone quality assurance, quality control, and certification according to the procedures outlined in the NPS Coastal Elevation Data QAQC and Publication SOP (Thorsdatter et al. 2023). These data are available for public use and can be downloaded from the NPS DataStore.

Table 1. Surface elevation table sites monitored by NCBN within Acadia National Park.

Site	SET station count	First reading	Most recent reading	Status	Dominant vegetation
Thompson Island	3	2011	2024	active	Spartina patens
Maine Coast Heritage	3	2011	2024	active	S. patens
Bass Harbor	3	2011	2024	active	S. patens, Spartina alterniflora
Schoodic	3	2011	2024	active	S. patens, Juncus sp.

SET Data Summerization & Analysis

Prior to data analyses, the SET data were summarized using the procedures outlined in the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 8: SET and Marker Horizon Data Analysis). In brief, the height of each pin above the SET arm on each sampling date was first subtracted from its initial value (i.e., the value on the first measurement date) to determine cumulative surface elevation change. Next, the pin-level cumulative surface elevation change values for each measurement date were then averaged for each SET bearing, then the bearing-level values were averaged to the station level, and finally the station-level values were averaged to the site level. To estimate the rate of marsh surface elevation change at each site, we used a simple linear regression model where the independent variable was the time since the first measurement and the dependent variable was site-level cumulative surface elevation change as outlined in Feher et al. 2024 and Russell et al. 2022.

Marsh Surface Elevation Data

The elevation of the marsh surface at the four marsh sites at ACAD were determined by converting SET pin measurements to NAVD88 elevations. To accomplish this, long (~24 hour) static GNSS surveys were conducted on the SET benchmarks that were installed in each of the four marshes according to the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015). This resulted in the elevation of the benchmark in meters NAVD88. Accurate measures of the SET benchmark allowed for the conversion of SET pin data from the most recent sampling event to an NAVD88 elevation using the formula outlined in the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 6: Surveying the SET Mark):

\[ MSE = A + B - (D-C) \]

where MSE is the marsh surface elevation in meters NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988), A is the NAVD88 elevation of the SET benchmark, B is the vertical offset of the SET instrument above the marsh, C is the SET pin measurement, and D is the length of the pin.

Hydrologic Data, Tidal Datums, & Marsh Flooding

Water level data were collected at continuous 15 minute intervals from 4 permanent water level loggers (HOBO® 13-Foot Water Level Data Logger, model U20-001-04) installed in the nearest creek/ditch at Thompson Island, Maine Coast Heritage, Bass Harbor and Schoodic as outlined in the NCBN Water Level Data Collection and Management methods document (Curdts 2017). Prior to the calculation of marsh flooding time and tidal datums, the raw water level data were first converted to meters NAVD88 using the absolute elevation of the water loggers derived from on-the-ground RTK surveys as outlined in the NPS Surface Elevation Table Protocol (Lynch et al. 2015 - see SOP 6: Surveying the SET Mark). Both the raw water level data and water level data relative to NAVD88 were then uploaded to the NPS AQUARIUS WebPortal for QAQC, certification, and storage. In order to calculate the percentage of time that each marsh was flooded, the water level data referenced to NAVD88 were compared to the NAVD88 ground elevations of the marsh at each site (Curdts 2017). Similarly, we also used the water level data referenced to NAVD88 to calculate site-level tidal datums for mean high water (MHW), mean low water (MLW), and mean sea level (MSL) as defined by NOAA (NOAA Tides and Currents Glossary).

Elevation Capital

We calculated the normalized elevation capital (NEC), a metric of marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise, using the formula defined by Morris et al. 2020:

\[ NEC=\frac{MSE - (MSL - 0.1)}{MHW + 0.3 - (MSL - 0.1)} \]

where MSE is the marsh surface elevation, MSL is mean sea level, MHW is mean high water, and 0.1 m below mean sea level to 0.3 m above mean high water represent the assumed growth range of Spartina alterniflora (the dominant vegetation type in salt marshes of the northeastern U.S.). NEC ranges between 0 to 1 and marshes with an NEC below 0.5 are considered vulnerable to sea-level rise or unstable, whereas marshes with an NEC above 0.5 are considered more stable with higher elevations (Roman et al. 2024).

Sea-Level Data & Rates of Sea-Level Rise

Long-Term SLR

The long-term relative rate of sea-level rise (RSLR) was obtained from the NOAA tides and currents website for the nearby tide gauge at Bar Harbor, ME (Station ID: 8413320). This long-term SLR rate is based on the full record of water level observations collected between the year that the gauge was installed (1947) to the most recent year of certified data (2025).

Recent SLR

We estimated a recent rate of relative sea-level rise using the method described in Moon et al. 2022, where a linear regression model was applied to the monthly mean sea-level data with the average seasonal cycle removed by subsetting the data from the Bar Harbor, ME gauge for the most recent tidal epoch between 2001 to 2019.

Future SLR

We estimated future projected relative sea-level rise rates using the five alternative SLR scenarios produced by Sweet et al. 2022 for the 5th National Climate Assessment. The low, intermediate-low, intermediate, intermediate-high, and high SLR scenarios correspond to global mean sea level increases of 0.3 m, 0.5 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, and 2.0 m (respectively) by 2100. To approximate the RSLR rate by 2100 under each of the five scenarios, we used the data provided by Sweet et al. 2022 to estimate future RSLR rates for the 2090-2100 decade for the Bar Harbor, ME tide gauge as outlined in Chivoiu et al. 2020, Moon et al. 2022, and Osland et al. 2024.

Figure 3. Individual SET stations within Acadia National Park.

Results

1. What are the elevation dynamics of coastal wetlands at Acadia National Park?

Across all four actively monitored sites at Acadia National Park, the park-wide average rate of surface elevation change was 1.73 ± 0.27 mm/yr. Site-level rates of surface elevation change varied from a low of 1.03 ± 0.24 mm/yr at Schoodic to a high of 2.36 ± 0.25 mm/yr at Bass Harbor (Table 2; Figure 4).

Table 2. Site-level rates of surface elevation change within Acadia National Park. Rates of surface elevation change labeled with * are significantly different from 0. Note that 𝑟² values represent the proportion of variation in the data explained by the site-level rates of surface elevation change.

Site	Rate of surface elevation change (mm/yr)	Adjusted 𝑟²	Years measured
Thompson Island	1.83 ± 0.12*	0.92	2011-2024
Maine Coast Heritage	1.69 ± 0.14*	0.87	2011-2024
Bass Harbor	2.36 ± 0.25*	0.81	2011-2024
Schoodic	1.03 ± 0.24*	0.48	2011-2024

Figure 4. Site-level surface elevation change at Acadia National Park. Rates of surface elevation change (SEC) are shown in panel labels. Hover the mouse over a data point to see the cumulative surface elevation change value on a specific date, or click and drag over a specific time to zoom in. Double click to zoom back out.

2. How do local hydrology and tidal datums relate to marsh surface elevations?

Local Hydrology & Tidal Datums

Water level data was collected in nearby tidal creeks at Thompson Island, Maine Coast Heritage, Bass Harbor and Schoodic over the period between 2014 - 2024 and is presented in Figure 5 below. Mean low water (MLW) at the four sites varied by 1.116 m, with Thompson Island having the lowest MLW value (0.470 m NAVD88) and Schoodic having the highest MLW value (1.586 m NAVD88). Similarly, mean high water (MHW) varied by 0.603 m, with Bass Harbor having the lowest MHW value (1.178 m NAVD88) and Schoodic having the highest MHW value (1.781 m). Finally, mean sea level varied by 0.803 m, with Thompson Island having the lowest MSL value (0.811 m NAVD88) and Schoodic having the highest MSL value (1.614 m NAVD88). The park-wide average values for MLW, MHW, and MSL were 0.895, 1.575, and 1.084 m NAVD88, respectively.

Figure 5. Site-level water level data at Acadia National Park. Note that the red line indicates the marsh surface elevation (m NAVD88).

Marsh Elevation, Flooding, & Elevation Capital

Marsh surface elevation at Acadia National Park in 2024 varied by 0.674 m, with Bass Harbor having the lowest elevation (1.214 m NAVD88) and Thompson Island having the highest elevation (1.888 m NAVD88). The park-wide average marsh surface elevation was 1.688 m NAVD88. Accordingly, the percentage of time that the marsh was flooded ranged from a low of 3% at Thompson Island and Schoodic to a high of 12% at Bass Harbor (park-wide average: 6%). Elevation capital ranged from a low of 0.56 at Schoodic to a high of 0.93 at Thompson Island. All four sites at Acadia National Park had elevation capital values above 0.5, indicating a lower vulnerability to sea-level rise. Figure 6 below illustrates the relationship between marsh surface elevation, local tidal datums, flooding, and elevation capital.

Figure 6. Bivariate relationships between site-level rates of surface elevation change, tidal datums, marsh flooding, and elevation capital at Acadia National Park. Labeled values represent the site-level hydrology metric or tidal datum. The dashed red line on the final panel represents the elevation capital threshold for marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise.

3. Is elevation gain sufficient to keep pace with current and predicted future sea-level rise?

Comparisons to current sea-level rise

As of April 2026, the current long-term rate of relative sea-level rise from the nearest NOAA tide gauge at Bar Harbor, ME was 2.48 mm/yr (± 0.10) for the period between 1947 to 2025 (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8413320). Out of the four sites at Acadia National Park, one site - Bass Harbor - gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the relative long-term rate of sea-level rise (Figure 7).

Additionally, using the sea-level data from the nearby NOAA tide gauge, we calculated a recent rate of relative sea-level rise of 4.57 mm/yr (± 0.78) for Acadia National Park over the most recent tidal epoch (2001-2019). None of the sites at Acadia National Park gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the relative recent rate of sea-level rise (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Site-level surface elevation change at Acadia National Park compared to relative long-term and recent rates of sea-level rise. Hover the mouse over a data point to see the rate of surface elevation change or sea-level rise, or click and drag over a specific area to zoom in. Double click to zoom back out.

Comparisons to future sea-level rise

Based on the calculations provided in Sweet et al. 2022, future predicted rates of relative sea-level rise by 2100 for Acadia National Park were 3, 6, 19, 25, and 34 mm/yr for the low, intermediate-low, intermediate, intermediate-high, and high future sea-level rise scenarios, respectively. Notably, none of the sites gained elevation at a rate close to or greater than the future predicted low, intermediate-low, intermediate, intermediate-high, or high rates of sea-level rise (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Site-level surface elevation change at Acadia National Park compared to future predicted rates of sea-level rise. Hover the mouse over a data point to see the rate of surface elevation change or future predicted sea-level rise, or click and drag over a specific area to zoom in. Double click to zoom back out.

Discussion & Conclusions

Figure 9 below visually summarizes the relationships between elevation change, marsh surface elevation, local tidal datums, and long-term and recent rates of sea-level rise. Thompson Island has the highest surface elevation and thus has the highest elevation capital of the four sites. Notably, all four sites have elevation capital values above the 0.5 threshold for increased vulnerability to sea-level rise. Bass Harbor has the lowest surface elevation although the rate of surface elevation change is the greatest of the four sites and is comparable to the long-term rate of sea-level rise. Despite its relatively high surface elevation, Schoodic had the lowest elevation capital because mean sea-level at the site is substantially higher and closer to the surface elevation of the site as compared to the other three sites.

Figure 9. Surface elevation change rates and site elevations at Acadia National Park compared to local tidal datums and rates of SLR. Note that the dashed horizontal lines represent park-wide average Mean High Water (MHW) and Mean Sea Level (MSL).

A summary of these results can be seen in Table 3 below. Only one site – Bass Harbor – is keeping pace with the relative long-term rate of sea-level rise but none of the four sites are keeping pace with the higher recent rate of sea-level rise. Similarly, none of the sites are likely to be able to keep pace with the accelerated rates of future predicted sea-level rise. Rates of surface elevation change at all sites are low but this is mostly likely due to the relative geologic stability of the Maine coast as compared to the mid-Atlantic or Gulf region (Piecuch et al. 2018; Sallenger et al. 2012). One caveat for these results is the rates of surface elevation change and marsh surface elevations at these sites are only representative of the very small area that is being measured and thus may not necessarily be representative of changes in the park as a whole. The survival of these marshes is linked to their ability to maintain a favorable vertical position in relation to the local hydrologic conditions. As rates of sea level rise and hydrology, sediment input, nutrients, and other conditions in the park change, the marshes must adapt. If they cannot, their survival in the future would be uncertain. The NPS is continuing to monitor these vulnerable ecosystems.

Table 3. Acadia National Park data summary (2011 - 2024). Note that green/red text represent high/low values for each column.

Site	SEC rate (mm/yr)	Marsh elevation (m NAVD88)	MHW (m NAVD88)	MSL (m NAVD88)	Time flooded (%)	Elevation capital	SEC vs. SLR-long1	SEC vs. SLR-recent2
Thompson Island	1.83 ± 0.12	1.888	1.681	0.811	3	0.93	lower	lower
Maine Coast Heritage	1.69 ± 0.14	1.819	1.659	0.950	4	0.87	lower	lower
Bass Harbor	2.36 ± 0.25	1.214	1.178	0.962	12	0.57	close or greater	lower
Schoodic	1.03 ± 0.24	1.829	1.781	1.614	3	0.56	lower	lower
1 Long-term SLR - rate of surface elevation change compared to the long-term rate of SLR from the NOAA gauge at Bar Harbor, ME (1947-2025).
2 Recent SLR - rate of surface elevation change compared to the recent rate of SLR from the NOAA gauge at Bar Harbor, ME (2001-2019).

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Contact Information

Laura Feher, NCBN Biologist & Data Scientist
Laura_Feher@nps.gov

Adam Kozlowski, NETN Data Manager
Adam_Kozlowski@nps.gov

Katie Button, NCBN Biologist & SET Protocol Lead
Kaitlyn_Button@nps.gov

Vital Signs: Northeastern Coastal & Barrier Inventory and Monitoring Network
Reports & Publications (U.S. National Park Service) (nps.gov)